Loss Forecasting Manager

Job Description

Work Location: Wilmington DE or NYC
Work Mode: Hybrid (Atleast 4 days/week in office)

Candidate should have significant experience in US credit card industry, in Loss forecasting or Credit Policy strategy space. Candidate should demonstrate good communication skills, working with various clients and the ability to clearly articulate forecasts, reasons for forecasts and how they tie to recent trends and macro-economic conditions.

Responsibilities

Role breakdown:

• Manages the overall engagement with team of 4-5 members
• Expected to be 50% individual contributor, handling coding, Excel modeling and deck preparation
• Senior Management Consulting Summary:
  1. Ability to deliver clear, structured, and concise summaries of complex situations for senior stakeholders
  2. Consulting-style articulation is essential distilling what happened, why it matters, and what actions are recommended
  3. Strong emphasis on credit policy integration, ensuring recommendations align with established frameworks.
  4. Skilled in synthesizing key insights into crisp narratives and executive-ready presentations
• Credit Policy Integration: Translate credit policy decisions into portfolio forecasts
  1. Should be conversant with maturation, impact of policy change on loss trajectory
• Variance Analysis: Project and track actuals, explaining variances against the forecast including underlying drivers of change
• Model Incorporation: Work with a range of models, including vintage-driven, stochastic and challenger orthogonal models

Qualifications

Ideal candidate profile:

• Strong proficiency in vintage models, roll rate models, and stochastic time series models
• Must work in office atleast 4 days a week Wilmington, DE preferred, NYC alternate
• US credit cards experience in credit risk
• Credit cards policy experience (Acquisition credit policy preferred, ECM acceptable)
• Hands-on coding in Python & SQL